Navigating the storm: anticipating the challenges of 2024 Korea should conduct pragmatic assessment while pursuing visionary solutions The year 2024 has dawned. True to the character of the blue dragon in the Eastern zodiac, 2024 arrived with a mix of awe and hope. But a closer look at the unfolding reality reveals overwhelming signs of turbulence. The signs are many and they are occurring concurrently at multiple levels. And they say that no single community or country will be safe from the twin specter of climate disasters and nuclear winter. Humanity stands in a moment of great turbulence unprecedented in human history. Depending on the choice we make now, human civilization may find its way to peace or peril. From what I can see, the prospect does not look good. Global governance is needed now more than ever to close the gap between the intensifying challenges and the need for upgraded and tangible action. We need to respond to these risks immediately. Unfortunately, however, existing international institutions like the United Nations are showing signs of fatigue and paralysis. They are not expected to bounce back anytime soon because of two structural causes. The first is that global consensus building efforts are eroding due to the growing value divide between the major powers. Bloc politics akin to that of the Cold War is arising despite much stronger economic interdependence, which also makes it distinct from the Cold War era. The second and more serious cause is the absence of global leadership critical to the provision of global public goods, such as peace and stability, fair trade and the fight against climate change. The United States is increasingly perceived to be taking an isolationist posture away from its self-assumed role as world police after the end of World War II. This is bound to create a power vacuum along the geopolitical tectonic fault lines between the reemerging power blocs. No other major powers including China seem willing or ready to fill this vacuum. The ongoing wars in Ukr aine and Gaza are serious symptoms of this growing power vacuum on the western part of the fault lines. How these wars evolve will be closely watched by other players on the southern and eastern fault lines who may have an irredentist agenda to change the status quo by any means. This is the very reason why Korea cannot and should not be complacent. Given this grim overview of 2024, Korea must be realistic in its diagnosis of the looming signs of great turbulence. Korea must be vigilant against the multitude of existential threats emerging at both global and regional levels. Furthermore, Korea cannot take them on alone; it can only be done with the participation of its allies and partners. Its response and strategy must include building coalitions tailored to each of these risks in a common but differentiated manner. But coalition building will not be enough. Leading humanity to peace will not be complete without restoring trust and consensus between the two competing blocs. Only when the two sides act upon their shared interests, can the twin specter of climate and nuclear disasters be arrested. Time is running out. The climate risks are spiking exponentially. We are about to cross the point of no return, namely the 1.5°C threshold in the global average temperature. The continued rise in temperature will bring about devastating consequences such as sea level rise and the weakening of the North Atlantic Current. The risks of nuclear winter are also on the rise, as demonstrated by Russia's nuclear blackmail and the seeming resumption of a nuclear arms race. A global consensus must be restored to deal with the twin specter as a matter of top priority. But the United States and China do not seem to share this sense of urgency, let alone the need to act together. Korea can serve as a bridge-builder that helps connect their differing risk perceptions. This may be the most impossible task for Korea as a middle power. The chances of success are quite slim. But it is not a matter of choice for Korea. Failure to bring Washington and Beijing together will force Korea to take the brunt of the fallout. It must take upon this seemingly unrealistic mission with idealistic resolve. Only then will we have some chance at turning the tide. Korea's leaders owe it not only to their own people but also to the whole world. I hope Korea will be able to help steer the international community away from peril and toward peace, as promised by the year of blue dragon. Source: Yonhap News Agency
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