(EDITORIAL from Korea Times on Sept. 26)

North Korea's disclosure of a uranium enrichment facility earlier this month is not an isolated event that came out of the blue. It may be a prelude to a much more serious provocation - a nuclear test, which, if conducted as speculated, will be the North's seventh of its kind. In recent media interviews, National Security Adviser Shin Won-sik warned of a North Korean nuclear test, claiming that it may come right before or after the U.S. presidential election in November. "North Korea needs several nuclear tests as it strives to miniaturize its nuclear warheads," he said on Monday. "The North is ready for a nuclear test. Therefore, it can conduct one any time, whenever Kim Jong-un makes the decision." Conducting a nuclear test is a high-stakes poker game for the North Korean leader. If conducted as Shin speculated, North Korea will be slashed with fresh sanctions, not to mention a barrage of international condemnations, as it violates United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions. This will make the North, which is already under immense financial pressure because of the layered bilateral and multilateral sanctions in place, feel the pinch even harder. However, as a chronic violator of international regulations, North Korea has developed skills and knowledge to skirt the sanctions, so it may not be deterred by fear of fresh sanctions. But this time, North Korea's potential nuclear test may turn out to be self-destructive, as it may deal a blow to its relations with China. China has been nervous about North Korea's nuclear tests. They share a border and, therefore, China will be negatively affected by the neighboring country's nuclear activity. Despite this negative implication, China has consistently sided with North Korea in the UNSC and used its veto power whenever the international community sought to impose sanctions on the North for its various bellicose actions. Will China again defend North Korea in the event the North conducts another nuclear test? The answer is unknown because recent geopoli tical developments complicate Sino-North Korea relations. Currently their bilateral ties are being put to the test. The two countries are in a dispute about China's plan to install 191 telecommunication facilities capable of broadcasting FM radio, including 17 stations near the border with North Korea. If established as planned, those telecommunications facilities will allow North Korean residents to have access to outside information, the worst-case scenario Kim Jong-un has desperately striven to prevent from becoming a reality. China snubbed North Korea's request, enraging Pyongyang. In case North Korea conducts another nuclear test under such a tense security atmosphere, it will be an act of pouring oil on the fire. Sino-North Korea relations, which have already shown signs of having turned sour, can be further derailed. North Korea's probable nuclear test may turn out to be self-destructive. It also has the potential to create cracks in the partnership among three autocratic nations, namely China, Russ ia and North Korea. Kim Jong-un is known to have a deep-seated distrust of China. In a memoir released last year, titled "Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love," former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo quoted Kim as saying that he needs the U.S. military in South Korea to protect him from China. Kim even called the Chinese "liars." Kim appeared to have gained a much-needed boost when Russia, wrestling with shortages of ammunition and artillery as the war in Ukraine draws on, approached the North for arms deals. Kim seems to believe Russia has North Korea's back. He may wish for Russia to replace interruptive China as North Korea's largest benefactor as he harbors deep suspicion of China. North Korea's rare unveiling of the photographs featuring Kim visiting a uranium enrichment facility that produces fuel for nuclear bombs showcases vividly the overconfidence of the North Korean leader. The satisfaction revealed on his face reflects his miscalculation that North Korea's strong partnershi p with Russia will continue forever, even if a cease-fire deal is signed between Russia and Ukraine. With a nuclear test, Kim may want to show off to the world that he has fully recovered from his bruised ego after his summit with then-U.S. President Donald Trump in Hanoi, Vietnam, was cut short abruptly, and he had to return home empty-handed. South Korea should be fully prepared for the consequences of North Korea's possible nuclear test. It should keep an eye on the developments and chart a strategy accordingly to prepare for all possible scenarios to cope effectively with uncertainties in this critical juncture of history. Source: Yonhap News Agency