Rome: International rice prices remain near three-year lows as the world's crop prepares to hit a new all-time high this season, the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) said Thursday.
According to Agence Kampuchea Presse, the UN agency has forecast world rice production at 551.5 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, reflecting a 0.9 percent increase from the 2024/25 crop. The FAO highlighted that much of this expansion is expected to occur in Asia, with additional positive outcomes anticipated in Africa, Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean, assuming there are no major setbacks.
Global rice utilisation is projected to grow by 1.7 percent, reaching a record 549.1 million tonnes. This growth is driven by anticipated increases in both food and non-food industrial uses. Furthermore, global rice stockpiles are expected to reach 209.5 million tonnes by the end of the current marketing season, marking a 0.6 percent increase from their already record-high opening level.
The FAO report indicated that efforts in India to free up space in public granaries could lead to reduced carryovers in the 2025/26 season. However, this potential decline, along with other anticipated drawdowns, may be offset by stock build-ups in other regions, particularly in China.
International rice trade is forecast to expand by 1.4 percent, reaching a record 60.5 million tonnes in calendar 2025. While import cuts by Asian countries are expected, strong demand from other regions, especially Africa, might balance the trade dynamics.
Among exporters, India is anticipated to have the largest export expansion, with recoveries in shipments from Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. In contrast, exports from Cambodia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States of America, and Viet Nam are expected to contract.
The FAO noted that world prices fell steadily between September last year and March this year, influenced by abundant harvests in exporting countries, the repeal of export restrictions in India, and a slowdown in import demand. Although prices have shown some signs of recovery, the FAO's Rice Price Index remained 22.6 percent below its level from the previous year in May, indicating prices close to three-year lows.