Istanbul: Google has admitted its earthquake early warning system failed to accurately alert people during Turkey's deadly quake of 2023. Ten million people within 98 miles of the epicenter could have been sent Google's highest level alert, giving up to 35 seconds of warning to find safety. Instead, only 469 "Take Action" warnings were sent out for the first 7.8 magnitude quake. Google's system, named Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA), is run by the Silicon Valley firm and not individual countries. The system operates on Android devices, which comprise more than 70% of the phones in Turkey.
According to BBC, more than 55,000 people died when two major earthquakes hit southeast Turkey on February 6, 2023, with over 100,000 injured. Many were asleep in buildings that collapsed around them when the tremors struck. Google's early warning system was active on the day of the quakes but underestimated the earthquakes' strength. "We continue to improve the system based on what we learn in each earthquake," a Google spokesperson said.
Google's system detects shaking from numerous mobile phones using the Android operating system. Since earthquakes move relatively slowly through the earth, a warning can be dispatched. Google's most serious warning, "Take Action," sets off a loud alarm on a user's phone—overriding a Do Not Disturb setting and covering their screen. This alert is meant for stronger shaking that could threaten human life. A less serious "Be Aware" warning informs users of potential lighter shaking, not overriding a device on Do Not Disturb.
The "Take Action" alert was crucial in Turkey due to the catastrophic shaking and because the first earthquake struck at 04:17 when many users were likely asleep. Only the more serious alert would have woken them. In the months after the earthquake, the BBC sought to speak to users who had received this warning, intending to showcase technology effectiveness. However, despite reaching out to people in towns and cities across the impacted zone, none reported receiving a "Take Action" notification before the quake struck.
Google researchers have published details of what went wrong in the Science journal, citing "limitations to the detection algorithms." For the first earthquake, the system estimated the shaking at between 4.5 and 4.9 on the moment magnitude scale (MMS) when it was actually a 7.8. A second large earthquake later that day was also underestimated, with the system sending "Take Action" alerts to 8,158 phones and "Be Aware" alerts to just under four million users.
After the earthquake, Google's researchers revised the algorithm and simulated the first earthquake again. This time, the system generated 10 million "Take Action" alerts to those at highest risk and a further 67 million "Be Aware" alerts to those living farther from the epicenter. "Every earthquake early warning system grapples with the same challenge—tuning algorithms for large magnitude events," Google told the BBC.
Elizabeth Reddy, assistant professor at Colorado School of Mines, expressed concern over the delay in obtaining this information. "I'm really frustrated that it took so long," she said. "We're not talking about a little event—people died—and we didn't see a performance of this warning in the way we would like." Google maintains that the system is supplementary and not a replacement for national systems.
Harold Tobin, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, emphasized the importance of transparency regarding the system's effectiveness. "Would some places make the calculation that Google's doing it, so we don't have to?" he questioned. Google researchers assert that post-event analysis has improved the system, and AEA has issued alerts in 98 countries. The BBC has inquired about AEA's performance during the 2025 earthquake in Myanmar but has yet to receive a response.