London: Andrew Davies was on his way to New Zealand to work on a Doctor Who exhibition, for which he was project manager. The first leg of his flight from London to Singapore was fairly smooth. Then suddenly the plane hit severe turbulence. "Being on a rollercoaster is the only way I can describe it," he recalls. "After being pushed into my seat really hard, we suddenly dropped. My iPad hit me in the head, coffee went all over me. There was devastation in the cabin with people and debris everywhere."
According to BBC, in the US alone, there have been 207 severe injuries since 2009, where individuals were admitted to hospital for more than 48 hours due to turbulence, as per figures from the National Transportation Safety Board. Of these, 166 were crew members who may not have been seated. As climate change shifts atmospheric conditions, experts warn that air travel could become bumpier: temperature changes and shifting wind patterns in the upper atmosphere are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe turbulence. "We can expect a doubling or tripling in the amount of severe turbulence around the world in the next few decades," says Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading. The bumpy North Atlantic route, for instance, has seen a 55% increase in severe turbulence over the past 40 years.
Severe turbulence, defined by up and down movements of a plane exerting more than 1.5g-force, has been projected to increase in frequency in various regions such as East Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East. Climate change is a significant driver, affecting both convective and clear-air turbulence. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to more intense thunderstorms, which in turn can cause severe turbulence. Andrew Davies's journey back in 2024 experienced such turbulence due to developing convective activity over south Myanmar.
For passengers like Davies, the prospect of more turbulence is concerning, especially for those who are already anxious flyers. "More than a fifth of UK adults say they are scared of flying," according to a recent YouGov survey, with worsening turbulence possibly exacerbating their fears. However, aircraft wings are designed to withstand turbulent air, with significant flexibility to endure severe conditions. The economic costs of turbulence are also a concern for airlines, with AVTECH suggesting costs ranging from £180,000 to £1.5 million per airline annually due to maintenance, compensation for diverted or delayed flights, and increased fuel use.
Forecasting turbulence has improved, allowing airlines to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of turbulence on flights. Some airlines have made operational changes to reduce turbulence-related injuries. For example, Southwest Airlines now ends cabin service earlier, while Korean Airlines has altered its in-flight service offerings. Innovative approaches like studying owl flight and developing AI technology are being explored to further minimize turbulence impacts, though they may not be seen on commercial aircraft for some time.
Despite these advancements, experts argue that turbulence remains largely an inconvenience rather than a danger. Captain Nathan Davies notes that turbulence is "generally nothing more than annoying," and passengers are advised to remain seated with seat belts fastened to ensure safety during flights. Andrew Davies reflects on this advice, emphasizing the importance of staying buckled up and choosing moments wisely when moving around the cabin.